Gold to Get Stronger, the Dollar to Weaken

The first thing that anyone needs to know about gold is that it is volatile. The second is that in a dollar/gold trade, this is the dollar�s volatility. They are two sides of the same trade.

The problem this spring and summer has been that nobody can figure out the value of a dollar, and the reason for that is the debate inside the Federal Reserve about tapering. My view is that the Fed will not start the tapering off of its QE policy in September. If I�m right and they don�t taper [that is, they announce a continuance of the aggressive bond buying], then watch for the dollar to weaken and gold to get stronger. If they do start to taper, watch for the reverse.

- Source, Jim Rickards via Alpha Hunter:

Jim Rickards on the Keiser Report - Deja Fraud


Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert, report from the heart of hedge fund land in Stamford and Darien, Connecticut, where they discuss the deja fraud of highly leveraged markets five years after Lehman collapsed and the nonsense job economy in which highly trained engineers spend their working lives dividing one simple mortgage into thousands of pieces of complex derivatives like piles of stinky fried fish. In the second half, Max interviews Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars, who compares the Fed relationship to the BRICS nations to that of a drunk driver who runs down pedestrians and then blames the pedestrians for being in the way.

- Source, Max Keiser:

Ron Paul, Doug Casey, Jim Rickards, Don Coxe at the Casey Summit 2013


Register now at http://www.caseyresearch.com/summit/2... to see and meet Dr. Ron Paul, Doug Casey, James Rickards, John Mauldin, Donald Coxe, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Catherine Austin Fitts, Rick Rule, Marin Katusa, Chris Martenson and many others at the upcoming Casey Summit 2013 October 4-6 in Tucson, Arizona.

- Source, Casey Research:

These Are the Currencies I am Buying

According to Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis author Jim Rickards, traders (not investors) should short the British pound. In his eyes, a currency crisis is coming, and the British pound is �in the eye of the storm� because the UK has sold most of its gold, and they are printing money endlessly. He believes the UK is using monetary policy to try to solve structural problems, which will ultimately fail.

On the US situation, Rickards believes the US has used all its dry powder combating the Great Recession of 2008. �The problem is, the last time the Fed printed 3 trillion dollars between 2008 and 2013 to patch it over. What are they going to do next time, print 6 trillion dollars? Their balance sheet is shot. The next time there�s going to be a liquidity crisis, the Fed won�t be able to print because they already did that.�


- Source, Market Sanity:

The Gold Standard is Misleading

It is important if, with me, you expect that the world will in time have to adopt some sort of gold standard. The phrase �the gold standard� is misleading, there are many different ways in which one can structure a gold standard, or simply use gold as a reference of value, as suggested for example by Robert Zoellick in 2010. But given any resumption of a gold-based system, the most powerful countries will be the countries that have the gold.

What is the best way to consider gold as a measure of relative economic power? One approach sometimes used is a measurement of the percentage of a nation�s reserves that is held in gold. The U.S. is in good shape, then, because it has 70% of its reserves in gold, whereas China has only 1% of its reserves in gold. But that, I submit, is a misleading measure.
We don�t need a foreign currency, because we print dollars. So at least as long as the dollar retains its central measuring role in international transactions it isn�t surprising the U.S. doesn�t hold in reserve a lot of euros or pounds. We hold gold and we can produce dollars at will so we don�t really need foreign currency reserves.

If you want to measure gold as a potential future backing for the economy, though, you need something more germane, and for this purpose one might consider the gold-to-GDP ratio.
The ratio for the U.S. is now approximately 3%. For China, it�s at 0.7%. But that raises the issue of whether the Chinese are lying about their reserves. And clearly they are.

- Source, James Rickards via Alpha Hunter:

A Collapse of the Dollar Standard

�A return to a gold standard is a possibility, but I don�t see that in the immediate future, I think we have to have a collapse first. A collapse of the dollar standard, and the petro-dollar deal. Then it (the dollar) will have to be replaced with something, which will either be the SDR or gold. The dollar standard is definitely collapsing � the collapse is definitely coming�

- Jim Rickards:

Federal Reserve Policy Affecting Emerging Markets

Jim is just back from safari in Africa, and says that bankers are more dangerous than rhinos because rhinos can only charge one person at a time, where bankers can take out entire countries and populations.

The FED relationship to the BRIC and emerging markets is like a drunk driver who runs down pedestrians and then blames the pedestrians for being in the way. Jim was in South Africa to attend an investment conference where he met the top institutional investors in the country, some of the wealthiest individuals, and government officials, and said you find out what their opinion is on what the FED is doing to the entire world.

The FED officials, reserve bank governors, say they know what is going on in the emerging markets but that they do not care. The FED says that it�s their job to take care of the United States economy and the rest of the world is on its own.

Jim believes that when you are manipulating every market in the entire world then you cannot be so careless about it. They are like a drunk driver running everyone else off the road. A lot of these markets are not that big, relative even to Europe.

When the FED calls interest rates down to zero, everyone wants to do the carry trade. They borrow dollars, then buy the local currency, invest in foreign assets, make a spread, leverage it up, and make a lot of money.

Well, as soon as the FED hints that they are going to raise interest rates, so called tapering, then everyone unwinds the carry trade. So they are now just massively dumping assets in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa and elsewhere, dumping the currencies.

South Africa has seen their currency go from 8 to the dollar to almost 11 to the dollar in a matter of weeks. This is incredibly disruptive and damaging to them. The FED just says, �It�s your problem. You�ve got central banks so set your own policy.�


- Source, Elaine Taylor discussing Jim Rickards:

Gold is Money


James Turk and Jim Rickards discuss the ongoing currency wars. Rickards discusses gold, the economy and inflation.

- Source, Gold Money:

Russia Aggressively Buying Gold

Russia now, after an aggressive pattern of buying gold in recent years, has acquired 1/8th of the gold of the U.S. Russia has 1/8th the economy of the U.S., too, so in terms of the gold-to-GDP ratio they have attained parity. They've been very transparent about their buying, in contrast to the Chinese. Putin has also, not coincidentally, been very clear that he doesn't want the U.S. dollar to continue to hold a central position in world markets.

- Source, James Rickards via Alpha Hunter:

Fed to Emerging Markets, Drop Dead


David Owen, Chief Euro Economist at Jefferies International, previews Mark Carney�s first inflation report and discusses U.K. economic data. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's �The Pulse.�

- Source, Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/fed-to-emerging-markets-drop-dead-rickards-t_quMyzISCO5m23BP2iuuw.html

Suffer little children... but not in OUR church!


This week has provided a lesson in contrasts. To begin, let me make it clear I'm no fan of Mark Driscoll. Google the terms "Mark Driscoll" and "bully" or "sex" if you're not already familiar with the man. The Wartburg Watch is but one blog that has published several telling articles about Driscoll.

Assuming you're all up to date on Driscoll and we're on the same page now, I trust it's apparent why I was surprised when someone sent me this statement that Driscoll tweeted Sunday.  It doesn't seem to fit his "beastly" persona.


Now for the contrast...

Below is an excerpt from a comment on a previous thread by "Super Sleuth" which encapsulates what people have been telling me for the past month. I've heard it from enough different sources to know it's the truth. Besides, I've heard Steve Gaines opine on these subjects for years now. It's really nothing new. It's just become an obsession for some reason.

In the last 3 or 4 Sundays, Steve has been raving about something.

1) He chewed us out (9:20 service) for not embracing the New Age rock music and belittles us for still wanting the old tried and true songs of the faith.

2) He told us to get the heck out now if we must, because he does not want anyone leaving before or during the invitation.

3) He said kids should not run up and down the aisle or cry while he was preaching; he went on and on about it and told them where to go to take restless kids. (There were no kids running the aisles and no babies crying, but he kept on and on about it.)

I've heard Steve Gaines go off on parents with crying children before. I grew up with a pastor who would not tolerate crying children, so Steve is not alone here. And, as someone who is easily distracted and occasionally aggravated by crying babies and even more, by misbehaving older children whose parents don't make any effort to take control of the situation (i.e. spoiled brats), I am not totally unsympathetic. I'm equally annoyed by loud "ameners" and hand-wavers, too, but when confronted with such distractions I try to tune them out. I just think this "problem" could be handled more delicately.


Here is a great compilation video of Steve vs. crying babies. Listen to what he tells the congregation of Golden Gate Cathedral about the consideration they should extend to children.  Then contrast that with how he acts at home at Bellevue. He loves them. He loves them not. He loves them. He loves them not. Which is it?


If looks could kill, the expression displayed at the 54-second mark would constitute a felony!

Apparently Mark Driscoll, somewhat surprisingly, loves them. "You chose life and chose to bring your blessing to church."  Video of Driscoll on kids in church.

For years one thing about Bellevue that has struck me is the absence of children under the age of about 12 from the worship services, and this began long before the Gaines era. With the advent of separate "children's churches" there's little incentive today for parents to keep their children with them during "big church" and teach them how to sit still. So is it any wonder they act up when they finally do attend worship services? Perhaps this contributes to the drop in attendance once they reach high school and college age. They're no longer being entertained.

I do think age-segregated Sunday School (or whatever they call it now) is appropriate, but when it's time for the church body to gather to worship corporately, if a child is above the age of 3, s/he's old enough to sit with mom and/or dad. Of course, preachers like Driscoll are going to have to clean up some of their sermons, but that's okay. I've heard a few of Steve Gaines' sermons that weren't exactly G-rated either, so that would be a good thing. Then if the child cannot control him or herself, I think parents do need to escort the child outside as a courtesy to others, including the speaker, but only until the kid gets a grip and can return with the parent. So I have no problem with the "parents' room" and politely reminding people (before the service, not during) that it's available, but it shouldn't be a substitute for a child attending the service "live" with the parent(s).

After reports about him "going on and on about it" for the past couple of weeks, it culminated Sunday morning in a speech directed at parents of young children that was "blued out" of several minutes of the live feed and will likely be edited out of Sunday morning's sermon if it's eventually posted on the church website. (By the way, what have they done to the church website? It's completely messed up.)

In Sunday's bulletin was this announcement about Ryan Wingo leaving:


Which makes another part of Sleuth's comment... interesting.

And the clicker is that Ryan and Lindsey Wingo and 2 kids are leaving to go to Apex, NC. This is a real shocker.

Yeah, I didn't see that one coming either.  Does anyone think a church with a staff of about a dozen people is going to pay a music minister anything close to what Bellevue does?  Perhaps as someone said, "Maybe they decided There's Gotta Be More."

We now know what transpired during the missing minutes. (Thanks to the anonymous person who contributed that. I have verified its authenticity.)

First was a short announcement about Ryan Wingo leaving and a short, slightly awkward statement by Ryan. Then came the real meat...

Steve is concerned for his personal safety and does not want crying babies and misbehaving children distracting him! (After listening to this, might I suggest eyeglasses?) I have no idea if he's received a credible threat, if it's his imagination, or if he's using one incident of a man walking down the aisle holding a hat to make it sound like someone's crying baby and someone else's toddler running around all led to him feeling fearful. It's a mystery.  I also do not understand why they felt the need to omit this from the live feed.

I stumbled across an excellent article on church "crying rooms" on the blog Monstrous Regimen of Women (a title which probably strikes fear and loathing in the hearts of most Southern Baptists).  The blogger made some good points which I think Steve Gaines and all of us should consider:

1) The children behave better if there is no crying room or 'play room' as they see it. They sit in the pew next to us, leafing through books or drawing. If they get disruptive, one of us takes them outside to calm down before they come in again.

2) There are more young families present, possibly because they do not feel duty bound to sit apart from the rest of the congregation like outcasts because they have embraced the Church's teachings and been open to life.


3) People are more accepting of the fact that there are children in church because they do not expect them to be shut up out of hearing in a glorified cupboard. When an old lady attacked me for having 'distracting' children, she kept saying, "there is a facility, there is a facility. Your children should be in there."

Here is another excellent article from the parents' standpoint. Both these blog articles were written by Catholics, but the same principles surely apply to Baptists. On the one hand, Steve doesn't want crying babies disrupting the service, but never mind that the sound system is turned up so loud, in all services, during the music, sermon, and especially, for some reason, the announcements, that you either need earplugs or must be willing to sacrifice several decibels of your hearing every time you walk through the doors. I suppose the "source" of the noise is what matters.  No wonder babies are crying.  Their ears hurt!

Steve says, "It's the difference between heaven and hell."  Well, it may mean the difference between a young couple or single mother ever darkening the doors of Bellevue again, too.

All this recent paranoia about Steve and the church being under attack... I do not believe "demons" are waging a full-fledged "attack" on Steve Gaines and Bellevue. I do not believe anyone at Bellevue, or in the USA for that matter, is being "persecuted" for being a Christian.  Sitting in an opulent air-conditioned building worshiping freely without the threat of physical harm, I don't think Steve or really any of us appreciate how blessed and privileged we are. If a crying baby in a worship service is the worst thing Steve has to deal with, thank God! We have no clue what persecution is. One only has to look at several middle eastern countries right now to see examples of real persecution. To compare American Christians' situation to those of people around the world who are being tortured and killed for their Christian faith is a grave insult to all of them.  So enough with the "we're being persecuted" schtick.

Most of Bellevue's problems are the result of a narcissistic, ham-fisted, my-way-or-the-highway pastor, spending way too much money on salaries and facilities and programs, and the sheer size of it. It long ago became more of a business than a church, and recent developments hint that it's veering dangerously close to cult status.  In other words, Bellevue's leadership is their own worst enemy. And maybe, just maybe, that's the real clicker.